美股屡创新高背后：盈利预期正以四年最快速度上修

Group 1 - Analysts are raising earnings expectations for the current quarter at the fastest pace in nearly four years, contributing to the S&P 500 index reaching new highs [1] - A tracking index by Citigroup shows the highest level of upward revisions to earnings expectations since December 2021, indicating a strong trend among companies providing guidance [1] - The forward guidance indicator comparing corporate guidance to Wall Street consensus is at its second-highest level in four years, reflecting a more optimistic outlook compared to earlier in the year [1] Group 2 - Despite the upward revisions, the overall earnings growth forecast for 2025 has decreased to 9.2%, down from nearly 13% at the beginning of the year, with expected earnings per share for S&P 500 companies at $269, lower than previous estimates [3] - The trend of upward earnings revisions may not be sustainable, as analysts and companies could lower forecasts in the coming months, similar to patterns observed during Trump's first term [3][4] - Current earnings guidance from companies is strong, with only 25% of S&P 500 companies providing quarterly performance guidance, primarily from technology and consumer discretionary sectors [4] Group 3 - The earnings momentum observed in the current reporting season is the strongest since the second quarter of 2021, with significant attention on upcoming earnings reports from major retailers like Walmart and Target [5] - Companies have shown resilience in performance despite challenges such as rising inflation and high interest rates, with investors hoping for a reduction or elimination of tariffs before profit margins are impacted [5] - There are concerns about increasing cost pressures in the second half of 2025, which could pose risks to actual income growth, as companies are still depleting inventories accumulated before tariffs took effect [5]