Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-08-18 13:13Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt's performance in H1 2025 aligns with expectations, with a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.8% and 62.3% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's H1 2025 revenue reached 37.2 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.71 billion yuan, up 62.3% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.9%, down 0.7 percentage points [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 19.4 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.3% and a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with a net profit of 1.46 billion yuan, up 27% quarter-on-quarter and 16.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Nickel Production and Profitability - The nickel wet process project continues to exceed production targets, with H1 2025 nickel product shipments of 139,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 84% [2] - The company expects Q2 2025 nickel shipments to remain stable at 70,000 tons, with a projected profit contribution of 3-3.5 billion yuan from nickel in 2025 [2] Group 3: Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt prices are expected to rise, with Q2 2025 cobalt shipments at 10,000 tons, and a potential profit increase of 2 billion yuan due to rising cobalt prices [3] - The company anticipates a second wave of cobalt price increases in late 2025, with potential profit elasticity of 1.5-2 billion yuan if prices exceed 300,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Other Metals and Materials - Copper shipments are projected at 19,000 tons in Q2 2025, with an annual target of 90,000 tons, contributing 700-800 million yuan in profit [3] - The company expects to maintain a breakeven point for lithium carbonate with a total cost of 80,000 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, while a lithium sulfate project is expected to reduce costs to 60,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025 [3] Group 5: Production and Sales Forecast - The company forecasts a 90%+ increase in ternary cathode shipments for the full year 2025, with Q2 shipments expected to reach 23,000 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 40% [4] - H1 2025 ternary precursor shipments were 42,000 tons, with Q2 expected to remain stable at 21,000 tons [4] Group 6: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 6 billion, 6.75 billion, and 8.24 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.6x, 11.2x, and 9.1x [5] - A target price of 53 yuan is set for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating based on the current nickel price situation [5]