股市大涨债市却“被错杀”！长债收益率一路上行，30年期升破2%

Core Viewpoint - The stock and bond markets are experiencing contrasting trends, with the A-share market reaching a historic high while the bond market is facing significant declines [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On August 18, the A-share market continued its upward trend, with the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, with over 4000 stocks in the two markets showing gains [3]. - The trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, setting a new annual high and the third highest in history, increasing by over 500 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a significant downturn, with the 30-year government bond futures experiencing the largest drop in over five months, and the yield on government bonds returning above 2% for the first time in four months [2][3]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose by 6.35 basis points to 2.0575%, while the 10-year bond yield increased by over 4 basis points to 1.789% [3][4]. - The yields on various government bonds, including 5-year and 1-year bonds, also saw notable increases, reflecting a general upward trend in bond yields [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn in the bond market, many institutions maintain an optimistic outlook, citing factors such as a weak economic fundamental and expectations of continued liquidity [6]. - The Ministry of Finance announced a bond market support operation to enhance liquidity, although its short-term impact on the overall bond market is expected to be limited [5]. - Analysts suggest that the bond market's recent adjustments are primarily due to systemic actions by bond funds and brokerages, rather than economic fundamentals, indicating potential for recovery if market conditions stabilize [7].