股市大涨债市却“被错杀”！长债收益率一路上行 30年期升破2%

Core Viewpoint - The stock and bond markets are experiencing contrasting trends, with the A-share market reaching a historic high while the bond market is facing significant declines [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On August 18, the A-share market continued its upward trend, with the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, with over 4000 stocks in the two markets showing gains [2]. - The trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan, setting a new annual high and the third highest in history [3]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a significant downturn, with the 30-year government bond futures experiencing their largest drop in over five months, down 1.33% to 116.09 yuan [2]. - The yields on various government bonds rose sharply, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 2% for the first time in over four months [2][3]. - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds were reported at 1.77% and 2.037%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.5 basis points and 4.3 basis points from the previous day [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn in the bond market, many institutions maintain an optimistic outlook, citing factors such as a weak economic fundamental and expectations of a loose monetary policy [4][5]. - The Ministry of Finance announced operations to support the liquidity of government bonds, which may have limited short-term impact on the overall bond market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the bond market may have entered a "wrongly priced" state, with future movements dependent on monetary policy adjustments and market risk preferences [6].