Buy or Sell Medtronic Stock Now?

Core Insights - Medtronic is set to report earnings on August 19, 2025, with historical stock performance post-earnings being highly unpredictable, showing a 50% chance of positive returns and a median gain of 2.5%, while also experiencing a median loss of -3.8% in negative instances [4][8]. Financial Performance - Medtronic's current market capitalization stands at $119 billion, with the company generating $34 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, an operating profit of $6.5 billion, and a net income of $4.7 billion [5]. Stock Performance Comparison - Over the past five years, Medtronic's stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, with its share price declining from approximately $100 to $95, while the S&P 500 has increased by about 70% during the same period [3]. Earnings Forecast - The consensus forecast for the upcoming earnings report is $1.23 per share on sales of $8.37 billion, indicating flat earnings per share compared to the previous year but an increase in sales from $7.92 billion [4]. Historical Earnings Reaction - An analysis of the last five years shows that Medtronic has had 20 earnings observations, with a 50% hit rate for positive one-day returns, which drops to 42% when considering the last three years [8]. Trading Strategies - Two trading strategies are suggested: pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds and post-earnings positioning that utilizes the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns to inform trading decisions [6].