Estée Lauder: Sell EL Stock Now?

Core Insights - Estée Lauder Companies is set to report earnings on August 20, 2025, with a consensus expectation of earnings per share at $0.09 and sales of $3.4 billion, a decline from $0.64 per share and $3.87 billion in the same quarter last year [4] Historical Stock Performance - Over the past five years, Estée Lauder's stock has shown a pattern of negative one-day returns post-earnings, with 70% of instances resulting in a decline, a median drop of -7.3%, and the largest single-day drop being -20.9% [3][7] - In the last five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with only 6 positive one-day returns, indicating a 30% occurrence rate of positive returns, which drops to 9.1% in the last three years [7] Financial Performance - The company has a market capitalization of $33 billion and generated $15 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with $1.3 billion in operating profits, but reported a net loss of $871 million during the same period [5] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds and evaluate immediate post-earnings reactions to inform medium-term trading decisions [6][8] - A lower-risk approach involves assessing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns around earnings, allowing traders to structure trades based on the strongest correlations observed [8]