年内离岸人民币对美元汇率涨超2% 人民币汇率将维持双向波动格局

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown a steady appreciation against the US dollar in 2023, supported by both domestic policies and international factors [1][2] Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of August 18, 2023, the onshore yuan closed at 7.1792 against the US dollar, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 1.64%, while the offshore yuan was at 7.182, with a year-to-date rise of 2.11% [1] - Since August 4, both onshore and offshore yuan rates have fluctuated below 7.2 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - Internationally, concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal policies, including large tax cuts and spending bills, have supported the yuan's appreciation [1] - Domestically, ongoing counter-cyclical and growth-stabilizing policies, stable economic data, and advancements in technology and industry have bolstered growth potential [1] - The "anti-involution" trend has stabilized prices, and improved risk appetite in financial markets has provided a solid foundation for the yuan's exchange rate [1] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations [1] - The PBOC's recent report signals a commitment to maintaining basic stability in the exchange rate, which is crucial for guiding market expectations amid rising global financial uncertainties [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The yuan is expected to maintain a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with domestic growth policies continuing to support the currency [2] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US, further stabilizing the yuan [2] - The PBOC has sufficient tools, such as counter-cyclical factors and offshore central bank bills, to support the yuan's resilience [2]