Okta Plunges 27% in 3 Months: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Okta (OKTA) shares have declined 27.2% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 15.4% and the Zacks Security industry's fall of 8.5% [1][7] - The decline is attributed to slowing federal business, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and stiff competition in the Identity and Access management domain [1][10] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2026, Okta expects revenues between $2.85 billion and $2.86 billion, indicating 9-10% growth from fiscal 2025 [10] - Non-GAAP earnings are projected between $3.23 and $3.28 per share, suggesting 16.7% growth year-over-year [11] - Second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are anticipated to be between $710 million and $712 million, reflecting 10% year-over-year growth [12] Market Position - Okta shares are currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The company's Value Score is D, indicating that Okta shares are overvalued compared to peers like Cisco [9] Product and Innovation - Okta is expanding its AI-driven identity tools and partnerships, which are expected to drive long-term growth [7][13] - The launch of the Cross App Access protocol aims to enhance security for AI agents, reflecting Okta's commitment to protecting customers deploying AI [14] Partnerships and Liquidity - Okta has a rich partner base, including major companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Palo Alto Networks, with over 7,000 integrations [16] - The company ended Q1 FY26 with $2.73 billion in cash, indicating strong liquidity, and raised free cash flow margin guidance to roughly 27% [18] Customer Growth - Okta exited Q1 FY26 with approximately 20,000 customers, with a notable increase in customers with over $100,000 in Annual Contract Value [19]