Toll Brothers Before Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. is scheduled to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 19, 2025, with a focus on maintaining strong margins and steady deliveries in a challenging housing market [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a record fiscal second quarter with earnings per share of $3.50, exceeding estimates by 22.4% and showing a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [2] - Revenue for the second quarter was $2.74 billion, surpassing consensus by 9.5% and reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year growth [2] - Home deliveries totaled 2,899 units at an average price of $934,000, with a gross margin of 27.5% and SG&A expenses at 9.5% of sales, both exceeding guidance [2] - Despite a 13% decline in net signed contracts due to economic uncertainty, the backlog remains strong at $6.84 billion [2] Future Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal third-quarter earnings per share is $3.59, indicating a slight decline from the previous year's EPS of $3.60 [4] - Revenue for the third quarter is estimated at $2.85 billion, suggesting a 4.6% year-over-year increase [4] - For fiscal 2025, revenues are expected to increase by 0.8%, while the bottom line is projected to decline by 7.1% [5] Guidance for Q3 2025 - Toll Brothers anticipates home deliveries between 2,800 and 3,000 units at an average selling price of $965,000 to $985,000 [7] - The company expects adjusted gross margin to be 27.25%, slightly below the previous year's margin of 28.8% [8] - SG&A expenses are projected to be 9.2% of home sales revenue, up from 9% in the same quarter last year [9] Market Position and Customer Base - The company serves a financially resilient customer base, with over 70% of its business targeting move-up and empty-nester segments [10] - More than 24% of buyers in the second quarter paid in cash, with an average loan-to-value ratio of 70% [10] - Toll Brothers operates in over 60 markets across 24 states, offering a diverse range of homes priced from $300,000 to over $5 million [11] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges such as declining consumer confidence, with net signed contracts down significantly year-over-year [12] - Increased incentives to support sales may pressure margins, with current incentives at about 7% of the average selling price [12] - The need to sell and close 1,900 spec homes in the second half of the year poses a risk to meeting delivery guidance [12] Stock Performance and Valuation - Toll Brothers stock has risen 23% over the past three months, outperforming some peers in the homebuilding industry [16] - The stock is currently trading at a discount to its industry in terms of forward price/earnings ratios [20] - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold recommendation, with limited near-term upside due to current earnings estimates [15][23]