中金：上证指数创下近十年新高 A股整体估值仍处于合理区间

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high on August 18, 2023, indicating a reasonable overall valuation level despite increased trading volume potentially leading to short-term volatility [1][4]. Market Performance - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85% to close at 3728 points, marking a new high since August 20, 2015, with the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 100 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The market has been strong since late June, with significant trading activity, as evidenced by daily trading volumes exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan [2][3]. Valuation Analysis - The current valuation metrics indicate that the A-share market is not overvalued, with the CSI 300 dynamic price-to-earnings ratio around 12.2 times, which is approximately at the 69th percentile historically since 2010 [4]. - The market capitalization to GDP ratio remains relatively low compared to other major global markets, and the total market capitalization to M2 ratio is about 33%, positioned at the 60th percentile historically [4]. Sector Performance - Growth-oriented sectors such as telecommunications, computers, electronics, media, and defense have shown strong gains, while sectors like real estate, oil and petrochemicals, and banking have underperformed [2][3]. - The market is currently experiencing a peak in earnings disclosures, with a focus on industries with favorable fundamentals [3]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential and performance validation, including AI/computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and non-ferrous metals [5]. - Additionally, sectors benefiting from increased retail investment, such as brokerage and insurance, as well as those aligned with "anti-involution" policies like photovoltaics, are recommended for attention [5].