GDP超预期+通胀预警！英国央行政策倒向“按兵不动”

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is betting that the Bank of England will maintain a 4% base interest rate for the remainder of the year, driven by rising inflation and resilient economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the UK's GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1% and the Bank of England's own forecasts [2] - The labor market is also performing strongly, with multiple indicators exceeding analysts' prior expectations, reinforcing the resilience of the economic fundamentals [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the shift in policy expectations, the British pound has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar this month, making it the best-performing currency among the G10 [2] - Analysts attribute the pound's strength to the Bank of England's quicker end to the rate-cutting cycle compared to other major central banks, creating a favorable interest rate differential [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key data, including the July inflation report and preliminary Q3 GDP figures, which will inform the Bank of England's policy direction [2] - Most institutions expect the Bank of England to likely keep interest rates unchanged in the September meeting while assessing whether inflation will exert sustained upward pressure [2]