中金：居民存款搬家潜力几何？

Group 1 - The article highlights signs of deposits moving towards the stock market since May, driven by factors such as increased M1 growth and a shift in deposit trends [1] - M1 growth reached 5.6% year-on-year in July, up from 2.3% in May, indicating a trend of deposit activation [1] - There is a notable increase in the popularity of equity funds, with a slowdown in fixed-income wealth management products compared to last year [1][9] Group 2 - The capital market has become more active, with daily trading volumes in A-shares exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August [2] - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% in July compared to May, although it remains below the peak in October of the previous year [2] Group 3 - The article discusses the sources of deposits, including fiscal spending and international balance of payments, which have contributed to deposit creation [15] - The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation rose from 25% at the end of 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit decreased from 73% to 41% [15][23] Group 4 - Factors driving the movement of deposits to the stock market include improved risk appetite due to government stimulus policies and a recovery in stock market returns [31] - The average return on A-shares over the past 12 months has reached around 20%, prompting a shift in investment strategies [31][33] Group 5 - The potential for deposits to move into the stock market is estimated at 5-7 trillion yuan, based on excess savings, maturing deposits, and the activation of deposits [45][46] - The article notes that the actual movement of deposits will depend on macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external factors [45][46] Group 6 - The shift of deposits to the stock market is expected to benefit banks by expanding interest margins and improving the outlook for credit demand [48] - The article suggests that while the stock market's attractiveness may reduce the appeal of high-dividend yields, it remains attractive for long-term funds [48]