美国滞胀幽灵笼罩市场 黄金重启跌势震荡向下

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the specter of stagflation in the U.S. is influencing global financial markets, prompting investors to urgently adjust their asset allocations to address the dual threats of economic slowdown and high inflation due to tariff impacts [1][2] - Approximately 70% of global investors expect stagflation in the next 12 months, with recent data indicating a significant slowdown in job growth and rising unemployment, alongside higher-than-target inflation rates [2] - Despite concerns about stagflation, global stock markets remain near historical highs, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the risks associated with stagflation [2] Group 2 - In a stagflation environment, inflation-hedging assets are becoming the preferred choice for risk-averse investors, with gold being highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset [3] - In the first half of 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached 230 tons, marking the largest increase since 2020, indicating a growing interest in gold as a protective investment [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a phase of horizontal consolidation at high levels, with a potential downward trend forming [4] - The previous trading day saw gold prices retreat after a brief rise, maintaining a bearish outlook as prices remain below key moving averages [4] - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $3320 and $3311, while resistance levels are noted at $3338 and $3345 [4]