美联储陷政策两难 通胀与就业数据相互矛盾

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the complexity of economic data poses a significant challenge for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite market perceptions that Trump's tariff comments are the main issue [1] - July's U.S. inflation data shows an annual CPI stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.1%, the highest since February, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [1] - The mixed signals from economic data create a dilemma for the Fed, as some indicators support rate cuts, while core inflation and a robust labor market suggest that cutting rates could be a high-risk choice [1] Group 2 - The market currently prices in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September, but experts argue that accelerating inflation, low unemployment, and strong financial market performance may make a rate cut unwise [1] - Powell faces the challenge of making decisions without clear data support, as any rate cut could be interpreted as yielding to political pressure, complicating the decision-making process [1] Group 3 - Technically, the dollar index is at a critical support area, with the latest quote at 97.7630, having pierced the bottom of the consolidation range from July and August at 97.70 [2] - Analysts suggest that a drop below 97.70 could indicate further declines for the dollar index, potentially targeting this year's low of 96.373 [2] - If the dollar index falls below this level, the market may further test the psychological level around 95.00 [2]