92%降息押注！鲍威尔讲话前，美股迎年内最难交易周

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is set to take place, drawing significant attention from global financial markets, with expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will signal a rate cut in September during his speech on August 22 [1][3] - Historical data shows that U.S. stocks generally trend upward during the Jackson Hole conference period, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices typically reflecting positive performance due to optimistic expectations regarding central bank policy guidance [3] - The conference is often viewed as a platform for announcing key monetary policy shifts, with past speeches by Powell having substantial impacts on market sentiment, as evidenced by his hawkish remarks in 2022 that led to a decline in U.S. stocks [3] Group 2 - The current market environment presents unique challenges, with inflation data showing a complex trend, particularly in core services, where the super core service price increased from 0.21% to 0.48%, significantly above the average of the past two years, complicating Federal Reserve decision-making [4] - The labor market is sending mixed signals, with July non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, well below expectations, and revisions to May and June data showing a downward adjustment of over 250,000 jobs, indicating a cooling job market [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut have reached high levels, with traders assigning a probability of over 92% for a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting investor concerns about economic slowdown and adding pressure on policymakers [4] - Consumer data is showing weakness, with July retail sales growth at 0.5%, down from 0.9% in June, and core retail sales growth declining from 0.8% to 0.3%, indicating a decrease in consumer spending willingness and reinforcing expectations of economic downturn [4]