新西兰联储料降息25个基点至3% 重启宽松周期以提振经济

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to lower the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3% during its monetary policy meeting on August 20, marking the resumption of a loosening cycle after a brief pause in July. This decision aims to address weak domestic economic growth and increasing uncertainty, aligning with the policy shifts of major global central banks [1]. Group 1: Economic Conditions and Expectations - A survey of 23 economists revealed that 22 anticipate a rate cut, with only one expecting rates to remain unchanged, indicating a strong consensus for easing monetary policy [2]. - Recent data shows a significant weakening of New Zealand's economic momentum, prompting policymakers to adopt a more accommodative stance. The RBNZ had previously paused rate cuts to assess inflation trends and external conditions, but the current economic data supports a return to easing [2]. - The RBNZ's chief economist stated that if inflationary pressures continue to ease as expected, there is room for further rate cuts, reflecting concerns over economic downside risks [3]. Group 2: External Pressures and Economic Weakness - High-frequency indicators indicate a continued decline in economic activity, with low consumer and business confidence hindering demand recovery. Although there are signs of resilience in consumption and investment, they are insufficient to reverse the overall weak trend [4]. - External factors such as global growth slowdown, increased trade tensions, and threats of U.S. tariffs add additional pressure on the New Zealand economy. Analysts warn that if weak data persists, the RBNZ may adopt a more dovish stance, potentially lowering rates to 2.5% [4]. Group 3: Market Impact and Policy Outlook - If the rate cut is implemented, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) may face depreciation pressure in the short term, although a temporary weakening of the U.S. dollar could partially offset this impact [5]. - The RBNZ's policy path will heavily depend on economic data performance, with traders advised to monitor five key indicators to assess the likelihood of a gradual easing path [5].