宋雪涛：全球TACO牛市，谁泡沫更大？

Group 1 - The core of the global market's risk appetite recovery is attributed to the loosening of dollar liquidity, with potential risks arising from changes in Federal Reserve policy or cross-border capital flows [3][5] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trades have led to increased confidence among investors, resulting in new highs for developed and emerging markets, including US, European, and Asian stocks [4][5] - The current environment of dollar liquidity is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and cross-border capital movements, impacting multiple markets and asset classes [5] Group 2 - Recent changes in dollar liquidity can be observed through five dimensions, including a significant decline in the dollar index, which has dropped 2.4% in the last quarter and 10% year-to-date [6][9] - The actual yield on US Treasury bonds has decreased by over 20 basis points since the peak in April, contributing to a more favorable risk sentiment [9] - Global central banks have accelerated their monetary supply, with a notable increase in the growth rate of global central bank money supply by nearly 7 percentage points in the last quarter [11] Group 3 - The cost of offshore dollar financing has decreased, indicating a more favorable liquidity environment for non-US equity markets [13] - Foreign capital inflows into non-US equity markets are becoming evident, with A-shares seeing a 0.75% increase in foreign ownership value compared to the end of last year [15] - In the broader non-US equity markets, foreign capital inflows have been observed in various Asian markets, contrasting with the net outflows seen over the past 12 months [19] Group 4 - The current AI wave has led to significant capital expenditures among tech giants, with an average capital expenditure growth rate of 18% from 2021 to 2024, raising concerns about the effectiveness of these investments [24] - The recent rise in US stocks has shown a barbell structure, with tech giants on one end and small-cap stocks on the other, reflecting a market pricing in economic resilience and policy risk reduction [27] - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the ratio of total market capitalization to nominal GDP, has reached a historical high of 2.1, indicating potential overvaluation in the US stock market [30][37]