美联合经济委员会报告：特朗普贸易政策或致美国制造业损失4900亿美元投资

Group 1 - The report warns that President Trump's trade policies may lead to a reduction in U.S. manufacturing investment by over 13% annually, totaling more than $490 billion by 2029 [1] - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest in nearly a decade [1][3] - Manufacturing construction spending has been on a downward trend since Trump's presidency, as companies are reluctant to make significant investments amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - The Joint Economic Committee (JEC) highlights that nearly 100 different tariff policy decisions made by the Trump administration since April have escalated economic uncertainty [3] - Between May and July, the U.S. manufacturing job count decreased by a total of 37,000, with May's hiring numbers reaching the lowest level since 2016 [3] - Manufacturers' investment sentiment has significantly declined, with expectations for capital spending growth in 2025 revised down to a decrease of 1.3% [3] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that manufacturing is particularly vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty, as decisions to expand production often involve large, long-term, and irreversible investments [4] - Delayed investments not only slow innovation but may also lead to job losses in factories, weakened supply chains, and diminished competitiveness against other countries [5] Group 4 - The report compares the uncertainty from Trump's trade policies to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, noting that U.S. manufacturers face broader policy and economic consequences [6] - Even if all trade policies were finalized immediately, the recent turmoil could still harm long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [6] - The JEC estimates that uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could lead to an average annual investment reduction of 1%, resulting in a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [6]