特朗普贸易政策或致美国制造业损失4900亿美元投资

Core Insights - The report from the U.S. Joint Economic Committee warns that President Trump's trade policies may lead to a reduction of over 13% in U.S. manufacturing investment annually, totaling a loss of more than $490 billion by 2029 [1] - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy in April, the U.S. manufacturing sector has lost 37,000 jobs, with hiring levels dropping to the lowest in nearly a decade [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has significantly dampened manufacturers' investment willingness, with expectations for capital expenditures declining [3][4] Manufacturing Job Losses - The U.S. manufacturing job count decreased by a total of 37,000 between May and July, with May's hiring reaching the lowest level since 2016 [3] - Manufacturers cite economic uncertainty as a primary reason for increased layoffs [3] Investment Trends - A survey indicated that manufacturers expect a 5.2% increase in capital expenditures for 2025, but anticipate a 1.3% decline by May 2025 [3] - The optimism among manufacturers has dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic peak, with trade uncertainty being the top concern [3] Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty - Manufacturing is particularly vulnerable to trade policy uncertainty, as decisions to expand production often involve large, irreversible investments [4] - Delayed investments can slow innovation, reduce factory jobs, weaken supply chains, and diminish competitiveness against other countries [4] Comparison with Brexit - The report compares the uncertainty from Trump's trade policies to the turmoil caused by the Brexit vote in 2016, noting that U.S. manufacturers face broader policy and economic consequences [5] - Even if all trade policies were finalized immediately, the recent turmoil could still harm long-term manufacturing innovation and growth [5] - The Joint Economic Committee estimates that uncertainty faced by businesses in April alone could lead to an average annual investment reduction of 1%, resulting in a manufacturing investment loss of approximately $42.2 billion by 2029 [5]