Core Viewpoint - The demand side continues to support Chicago soybean futures prices, while domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be boosted by rising raw material prices, despite weak domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Soybean Market Dynamics - As of mid-August, the excellent rate of U.S. soybeans remains high at 68%, although it has decreased for three consecutive weeks, the market's reaction has been muted [3]. - The USDA's August supply and demand report has lowered the forecast for soybean production and inventory, which has contributed to the rise in soybean futures prices [3]. - The July soybean crush volume was reported at 195.699 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 191.59 million bushels and significantly higher than June's 185.709 million bushels, indicating strong domestic demand for U.S. soybeans [1]. Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate between 3,100 to 3,200 yuan per ton until the end of August due to weak demand, despite the support from rising soybean prices [1][3]. - The daily demand for domestic soybean meal reached a yearly high at the beginning of August, primarily driven by forward contracts for next year, with spot demand showing no significant improvement [3]. - As of August 15, the daily transaction volume of soybean meal was 275,000 tons, but excluding the peak on August 5, the daily volume was only 124,000 tons, reflecting cautious purchasing attitudes [3]. Group 3: U.S. Soy Oil Demand - The increase in U.S. soybean oil demand has been a key driver for the unexpected rise in soybean demand, with July soybean oil production reported at 2.348 billion pounds, showing growth month-on-month [4]. - The rising demand for biofuels is the main factor contributing to the increase in soybean oil production, which is expected to provide long-term support for soybean futures prices [4].
需求利多驱动美豆或进一步走高 国内豆粕需求不佳压制价格区间震荡
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-19 07:10