Workflow
巴菲特开始布局!杰克逊霍尔会议前降息预期持续,美股住宅建筑板块反弹
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-19 08:24

Core Viewpoint - Recent market trends indicate a shift towards undervalued sectors, particularly residential construction stocks and small-cap stocks, as investors anticipate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index (DJSHMB) has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling a technical uptrend [1] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual stocks like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) rising by 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively [1] - The Russell 2000 index rose by 3.1% in the same period, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 1.7%, respectively [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Adam Turnquist from LPL Financial noted that residential builders had previously dropped nearly 36% from their peak last October, making the current recovery understandable [2] - Michael Arone from State Street Investment Management stated that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have been rising due to market expectations of a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed [2] - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has recently invested approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - Despite the recent rebound, residential construction stocks are still lagging behind the S&P 500, which has rebounded about 20% since the low point following the announcement of tariffs in April [4] - The U.S. real estate market remains stagnant due to record-high home prices, supply imbalances, and elevated mortgage rates, which hinder home buying and selling [4] - Turnquist emphasized that the current state of the real estate market is characterized by stagnation, with homeowners only selling under dire circumstances [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Grant from BNY Wealth anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, one in September and another in December, with inflation expected to remain moderate [3][6] - Upcoming economic data releases, including new housing starts and existing home sales, will be crucial in determining the continued performance of interest-sensitive sectors [6]