大量倒闭，商场正在死去？

Core Viewpoint - The retail landscape is undergoing significant changes, with many traditional shopping malls facing closures due to declining consumer demand and the rise of new retail formats, leading to a bifurcation in the market between thriving and struggling commercial entities [5][6][19]. Group 1: Decline of Traditional Malls - Numerous shopping malls are closing, with at least 38 malls shutting down in 2024, 76% of which have been operating for over 10 years [6][7]. - Major cities like Shanghai are experiencing a negative growth rate in retail sales, with a 3.1% decline in 2025's first quarter [5][7]. - The decline is attributed to consumer downgrading, with retail sales in Shanghai decreasing by 3.1% and in Beijing by 2.7% in 2024 [7][8]. Group 2: Impact of E-commerce and New Retail - The rise of new retail formats, particularly instant retail, is significantly impacting traditional malls, with the instant retail market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [12]. - Instant retail offers convenience and immediacy, which traditional malls struggle to compete against [11][12]. Group 3: Internal Challenges of Malls - Many malls suffer from a lack of differentiation, leading to consumer disinterest, as evidenced by over 6000 shopping centers with a total area of 5.6 billion square meters [14]. - The asset values of many commercial properties have been inflated, leading to a disconnect between perceived and actual value [14][16]. Group 4: Market Segmentation and Transformation - Despite the decline of traditional malls, some shopping centers are thriving by innovating and adapting to consumer preferences, with 73% reporting sales growth in 2024 [19][20]. - The rise of independent supermarkets and convenience stores is reshaping consumer behavior, with convenience store sales increasing by 4.7% in 2024 [22]. Group 5: Growth in County-Level Markets - In contrast to urban malls, county-level commercial entities are expanding, with retail sales in rural areas growing faster than in urban centers [23][24]. - The urbanization rate reached 67% in 2024, leading to increased consumer spending in county markets [23].