旺季却现大跌 创近十年新低！发生了什么？

Industry Overview - The domestic futures market for eggs has seen a continuous decline, with the main contract price dropping to 3070 yuan per 500 kg, marking the lowest point since October 2016 [1] - Since 2025, egg prices have shown a downward trend, decreasing by 30% compared to the peak price in October 2024 [2] - As of August 18, 2025, the average egg price in major production areas was 3.26 yuan per jin, while in major sales areas it was 3.13 yuan per jin, both reaching new lows not seen in the past decade [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of laying hens is significantly exceeding demand, with the number of laying hens at approximately 1.3 billion, remaining at a high level compared to the past five years [2] - Despite being the traditional peak season for eggs, prices have fallen to near historical lows, with the average market price dropping to 2.98 yuan per jin [3] - The current market conditions have led to cautious purchasing behavior among slaughterhouses, with small producers halting purchases at 5 yuan per jin, resulting in a reduced operating rate [2][3] Company Performance - Despite the overall weak performance of egg prices, Xiaoming Co., which specializes in egg production and hatching, reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 751 million yuan, a 93.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 185 million yuan, up 733.34% [3] - The average selling price of Xiaoming's chicken products increased by approximately 1.23 yuan per bird, representing a 40.33% rise compared to the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in gross profit margin [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slowdown in the growth of laying hen stocks in the second half of 2025, but supply will remain ample [4] - There is an expectation for egg prices to rise before the Mid-Autumn Festival, although the potential for significant price increases is limited due to ongoing supply dominance [4] - The market is also influenced by the prices of alternative products, such as vegetables and pork, which are currently at relatively low levels, further constraining the potential for unexpected price increases in eggs [4]