国盛证券：7月煤炭产量同、环比双降 年底煤价或以最高点收官

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates a significant decline in China's coal production in July, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, marking the first negative growth since May 2024 [2][3] Production Data - In July, the national industrial raw coal output reached 380 million tons, with an average daily output of 12.29 million tons, the lowest since July 2023 [2][3] - Major companies reported declines in coal production, with Zhongyue Coal achieving 11.05 million tons, down 8.7% year-on-year, and Lu'an Huanneng producing 4.48 million tons, down 9.1% [2] Factors Behind Production Decline - Prolonged heavy rainfall has severely impacted coal production and transportation in major mining areas, leading to increased shutdowns and reduced output [3] - The National Energy Administration's recent measures to check overproduction have further constrained supply, with some mines implementing a "276 working days" system [3] Price Trends - Coal prices hit a low of 618 yuan per ton in early June but began to rebound seasonally, with market sentiment shifting positively following the release of the "Document No. 108" [4] - The report suggests that coal prices may experience fluctuations or slight corrections before rising again towards the end of the year, potentially reaching unexpected highs [5] Recommendations for Companies - Companies with strong performance elasticity such as Lu'an Huanneng (601699.SH), Yanzhou Coal (600188.SH), and Jinko Coal (601001.SH) are recommended for investment [6] - Attention is also drawn to major coal enterprises like China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and China Shenhua (601088.SH), as well as companies showing signs of recovery like China Qinfang (00866) [6]