“苏”道如砥，凯歌以行——2025年下半年江苏省区域及城投信用风险分析及展望

Economic Performance - Jiangsu Province achieved a GDP of 66,967.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the second-largest economy in China, with a growth rate of 5.7%, surpassing the national average by 0.4 percentage points [2] - The province's economic structure is optimized, with a significant contribution from the digital economy and cultural tourism industries, leading to a service sector share of 55%, a historical high [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in Jiangsu increased by 7.4% in the first half of 2025, exceeding the national average by 1 percentage point, with 33 out of 40 industrial sectors experiencing growth [3] - Jiangsu's manufacturing sector remains robust, with a 7.9% increase in industrial added value, driven primarily by equipment manufacturing, which grew by 10.2% [3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline, but infrastructure investment rose by 6.9%, becoming a key growth driver, while manufacturing investment accounted for 45.8% of total investment [2] - Retail sales in Jiangsu grew by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [2] Service Sector Development - The service sector has become the core engine of Jiangsu's economic growth, with significant revenue increases in internet advertising services and travel-related services, growing by 15.4% and 12.8% respectively [4] - Financial services are also thriving, with new loans reaching 2.09 trillion yuan and social financing increasing by 2.63 trillion yuan, both leading the nation [4] High-tech Industry and Innovation - High-tech industries accounted for 51.8% of the total industrial output value, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8% in high-tech manufacturing added value [5] - The digital economy's core industries saw a revenue increase of 7.9%, indicating a continuous release of new and old kinetic energy conversion [5] Fiscal Management - Jiangsu's general public budget revenue reached 583.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, ranking second among major economic provinces [6] - The province's fiscal self-sufficiency rate was 80.61%, slightly down from the previous year, indicating challenges in maintaining fiscal balance [6] Debt Management - Jiangsu's debt management strategy has been recognized by the State Council, with a comprehensive plan to mitigate local debt risks [7] - The province issued 236.5 billion yuan in new special bonds, increasing by 29.7%, which facilitated over 1.2 trillion yuan in effective social investment [7] Urban Investment and Transformation - Jiangsu's urban investment enterprises issued approximately 637 billion yuan in bonds in the first half of 2025, maintaining the highest issuance scale in the country [8] - Despite challenges in transformation, Jiangsu's urban investment enterprises are well-positioned due to the province's strong economic foundation and abundant financial resources [10] Future Outlook - Jiangsu is expected to leverage its position as a core engine of the Yangtze River Delta economic circle and a hub for the Belt and Road Initiative to drive economic growth [11] - The province aims to enhance debt monitoring and risk prevention measures, with a focus on maintaining stable debt growth [11]