智通财经网·2025-08-19 09:21Core Viewpoint - In July, domestic heavy truck sales reached 85,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% but a month-on-month decline of 13% [1][2]. Sales Performance - Cumulative sales of domestic heavy trucks from January to July totaled 624,000 units, showing an 11% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - The sales structure indicates that in July, the proportions of semi-trailer trucks, cargo trucks, and incomplete vehicles in the overall heavy truck sales were 50.1%, 28.0%, and 21.9% respectively, compared to 51.9%, 25.3%, and 22.7% in 2024 [2]. - In July, semi-trailer truck sales were 43,000 units (up 29% year-on-year, down 12% month-on-month), while heavy cargo truck sales were 25,000 units (up 83% year-on-year, down 11% month-on-month) [2]. - Heavy incomplete vehicle sales in July reached 17,000 units, marking a 50% year-on-year increase but a month-on-month decline of 18% [2]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In July, domestic natural gas heavy truck sales were 12,000 units, down 7% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month [3]. - Cumulative sales of natural gas heavy trucks from January to July were 100,000 units, reflecting a 14% year-on-year decline [3]. - The penetration rates for natural gas in heavy trucks and semi-trailer trucks were 14% and 27% respectively in July [3]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - In July, domestic new energy heavy truck sales reached 13,000 units, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 159% but a month-on-month decline of 10% [3]. - Cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks from January to July were 88,000 units, representing a 172% year-on-year growth [3]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 16% in July, with a cumulative rate of 14% for the first seven months [3]. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - With economic recovery and the introduction of the "old-for-new" policy for heavy trucks in 2025, domestic heavy truck sales are expected to gradually rebound, with a forecast of 1.067 million units in 2025, an 18% year-on-year increase [4]. - The technology for domestic new energy heavy trucks has matured, and costs have decreased rapidly, indicating significant potential for penetration rate growth, expected to reach 15% by 2025 [4]. - The heavy truck industry still has growth potential, driven by domestic recovery and continuous export growth [4]. - Recommended stocks include Weichai Power (000338.SZ), China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951.SZ, 03808), CIMC Vehicles (301039.SZ), and Foton Motor (600166.SH), with FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ) identified as a beneficiary [4].