Core Viewpoint - China Feihe is facing significant challenges with a forecasted decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, marking the worst mid-year performance in five years due to over-reliance on infant formula and ineffective diversification strategies [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 9.1 billion and 9.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.87% to 9.86% [1][2] - Net profit is projected to be between 1 billion and 1.2 billion yuan, down 37.17% to 47.64% year-on-year, also the lowest mid-year performance in five years [1][2] Business Challenges - The primary reasons for the poor performance include: 1. Heavy reliance on infant formula sales, which are under pressure due to declining birth rates and increased competition [2][3] 2. Ongoing struggles with channel inventory management [2][3] 3. Rising marketing expenses that have not translated into proportional revenue growth [2][3] Market Dynamics - The infant formula segment remains the core business, contributing 91.9% of total revenue, but only saw a modest year-on-year growth of 6.6% in 2024 [3] - The demand for infant formula is significantly influenced by the declining birth rate in China, which has been a persistent issue despite government policies aimed at increasing birth rates [3] Pricing and Consumer Perception - Following the announcement of government subsidies for child-rearing, there have been consumer complaints regarding price increases for certain products, including those from China Feihe [5][6] - Specific examples of price increases include the Feihe Star Flying A2-2 formula, which saw a price rise from 960 yuan to 1020 yuan per box, reflecting a price increase of approximately 14% to 20% [5][6] Distribution and Pricing Strategy - China Feihe relies heavily on over 2,800 distributors, which account for 77.1% of its total revenue from dairy products, leading to potential issues with brand control and pricing consistency [7][8] - There is a noted lack of price transparency, with significant discrepancies in product pricing across different sales channels, indicating a need for improved pricing index systems to reduce information asymmetry [8]
中国飞鹤2025年上半年业绩急剧下挫 国家育儿补贴出台后被质疑变相涨价？渠道终端定价或较混乱