智通财经网·2025-08-19 11:24Core Viewpoint - European banks have reported lower-than-expected provisions for bad loans despite sluggish economic growth, primarily due to resilient labor market conditions offsetting pressures from economic weakness [1][4]. Group 1: Loan Provisions and Economic Impact - Analysts had anticipated that banks would signal deteriorating credit quality due to slowing economic growth, but strong employment data mitigated these expectations [4]. - In early 2023, banks like Barclays and Deutsche Bank had higher-than-expected provisions for bad loans, but they quickly adjusted their strategies [1]. - Overall loan loss provisions in the second quarter were 10% lower than expected, according to Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) [1]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Resilience - European banks have retained some of the provisions accumulated post-COVID, estimated at around €10 billion, to cushion against potential increases in bad loans [4]. - The European Central Bank's decision to lower deposit rates to 2% has also supported credit quality [4]. - Credit quality is expected to remain resilient unless there is significant economic turmoil and rising unemployment [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The MSCI Europe Financials sub-index saw a profit growth of 15% in the second quarter, significantly exceeding the expected 1.8%, marking the largest positive surprise among all sectors [7]. - The stability in credit quality, resilient net interest income, and steady growth in trading income have contributed to European banks outperforming other sectors during this earnings season [7]. Group 4: Loan Growth as a Catalyst - Loan growth is emerging as a new driver for European banks, with signs of recovery in loan demand being crucial for the banking sector and the overall economy [8]. - Despite uncertain economic prospects, European banks experienced a 2% increase in deposits and a 3% rise in loan growth in the second quarter, driven by improved loan demand [8]. - The growth in loan volumes is seen as a key factor not yet reflected in stock prices and valuation multiples [9].