BD交易繁荣背后，结构性矛盾待解

Core Insights - The explosive growth of BD transactions in China's innovative pharmaceutical industry signifies a phase of industrial upgrading, but underlying issues must be addressed [1][2]. BD Transaction Growth - In 2024, China's total pharmaceutical BD transaction volume reached $63.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.59%, with 24 major transactions exceeding $500 million, totaling $43 billion, accounting for nearly 20% of global major transactions [2]. - The growth momentum is expected to strengthen in 2025, with a 42% share of global transactions exceeding $50 million in the first five months, a significant increase from 5% in 2021 [2]. - Notable transactions include the licensing of SSGJ-707 by 3SBio to Pfizer for a $1.25 billion upfront payment and a total value exceeding $6 billion, and the agreement between Hengrui Medicine and GSK for HRS-9821 with a $500 million upfront payment and a potential total of $12.5 billion [2]. Challenges in BD Transactions - The current BD transactions primarily involve innovative pharmaceutical companies licensing early-stage assets to multinational firms for global development, which is crucial for cash flow and global recognition [3]. - However, the focus on clinical-stage BD transactions poses long-term challenges, as a significant reduction in preclinical pipelines may hinder subsequent R&D and commercialization capabilities [3]. - In 2024, over 15 domestic pharmaceutical companies, including East China Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, announced project terminations, with Shanghai Pharmaceuticals terminating 12 new drug pipelines within a year, resulting in losses of nearly $700 million [3]. Structural Issues in the Industry - The transition from generic to original research drugs reveals deep-seated challenges, as companies are forced to "sell seedlings" (potential pipelines) for survival, undermining the ability to cultivate "big fish" (blockbuster innovations) [4]. - Many clinical-stage innovative pharmaceutical companies face dual pressures: weak self-financing capabilities and shrinking external financing channels, leading to acceptance of low-premium BD transactions [4]. - The imbalance in negotiation power between resource-rich multinational firms and local companies in clinical research stages exacerbates the situation, limiting the long-term value for local firms [4]. Case Study: Pumis Bio - Pumis Bio licensed its bispecific antibody product BNT-327 for an upfront payment of $55 million, but when BioNTech resold the rights to BMS, the valuation soared to $11.1 billion, illustrating a significant value gap where the original developer received less than 0.5% of the final value [5]. - Such transactions, while addressing immediate financial needs, often sacrifice long-term value and contribute to the loss of strategic innovative assets [5]. Production and Talent Challenges - The demand for key production processes related to innovative drugs is shifting overseas, leading to stagnation in the capabilities of local CDMO firms, which affects the resilience of the domestic supply chain [6]. - The shift in risk capital focus from early-stage high-risk original innovations to lower-risk later-stage projects exacerbates the talent drain in foundational research, further deteriorating the innovation ecosystem [6]. Industry Value Chain Concerns - The integrity of the industry value chain is under threat, with local firms at risk of becoming concentrated in the "OEM segment," leading to a decrease in industry added value and hindering sustainable high-quality development [7]. - The increasing share of imported innovative drugs in healthcare spending is squeezing the payment space for local original research drugs [7]. Recommendations for Sustainable Development - To address the structural contradictions behind the short-term prosperity of BD transactions, a sustainable innovation ecosystem must be established, promoting a positive cycle among R&D, capital, market, and payment [8]. - Key strategies include deepening pricing and payment reforms, broadening financing channels, improving clinical application support policies, standardizing clinical promotion, and enhancing national strategic participation in major original research projects [8][9][10].