广州蓝皮书：固投主引擎亟待重构，建议用政策资金撬动大项目

Economic Overview - The "Blue Book" predicts Guangzhou's GDP growth rate for 2024 to be 2.1%, lower than the initial expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and slightly below the national average growth rate [1] - The economic growth is attributed to the gradual decline of traditional growth drivers and the nascent stage of new growth drivers, leading to a relatively low economic growth phase [1] - A moderate recovery in economic growth is expected in 2025, with a forecasted growth rate of 3% to 4% [1] Industrial Sector - The added value of the secondary industry in Guangzhou is projected to be 783.945 billion yuan in 2024, with a mere 0.7% year-on-year growth, indicating insufficient growth momentum during the transition period [3] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%, which is the primary reason for the slowdown in the added value of the secondary industry [3] - Despite challenges, emerging sectors show promise, such as aerospace manufacturing, which grew by 16.3%, and the cosmetics manufacturing sector, which saw a 47.4% increase in added value [3][4] Consumer Sector - The tertiary industry in Guangzhou achieved an added value of 22,858.58 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 2.6%, making it the fastest-growing sector and contributing 73.66% to the GDP [5] - Retail sales of social consumer goods reached 1,105.577 billion yuan, with a minimal increase of 0.03%, significantly lower than pre-pandemic growth rates [5] - Structural highlights include substantial growth in furniture (55.4%), home appliances (4.5%), and building materials (10.9%), driven by policies promoting replacement [5] Investment Landscape - Fixed asset investment in Guangzhou grew by only 0.2% in 2024, remaining at a historical low, with real estate development investment declining by 7.4% [7] - Industrial investment, particularly in manufacturing, showed resilience with a 13.6% year-on-year increase, continuing a trend of double-digit growth since 2022 [7] - The number of new investment projects increased, but large projects (over 50 billion yuan) saw a significant decline, highlighting a lack of substantial industrial investment [7][8] Recommendations - The "Blue Book" suggests enhancing project reserves and construction progress to stimulate investment and development [8] - It emphasizes leveraging special bonds and policy funds to activate major projects and structural investments [8] - The report advocates for increasing capital and expansion in the manufacturing sector to unleash industrial investment potential [8]