特稿丨在关税逆风中艰难前行——当前世界经济形势辨析

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is facing significant challenges due to the impact of tariff wars, particularly from the United States, which is weakening growth momentum and creating uncertainty in international trade [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance of Developed Economies - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with GDP growth affected by tariff policies, leading to a contraction in Q1 and a modest growth of 1.4% in personal consumption expenditures in Q2 [2][3]. - The Eurozone's GDP growth in Q2 was only 0.1%, the lowest since early 2024, with major economies like Germany and Italy facing export challenges [3]. - Japan has revised its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 down to 0.7% from 1.2%, primarily due to the effects of U.S. tariffs [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Challenges - The global economy is under pressure from geopolitical tensions, tariff wars, and rising macroeconomic risks, with the U.S. being identified as a major source of risk [5][6]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has highlighted that U.S. trade policies contribute to ongoing uncertainty and fragility in the global economy [3][5]. Group 3: Resilience in Emerging Markets - Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region are showing resilience and are becoming key drivers of global growth, with significant trade growth observed in developing countries [4][8]. - The global South is increasingly important in maintaining and enhancing multilateral trade systems, with countries like China demonstrating strong economic growth and potential [7][8]. Group 4: Impact of Tariff Policies - U.S. tariffs are expected to lead to significant costs for American businesses, with estimates suggesting hundreds of billions in direct costs, affecting pricing and employment [6]. - The uncertainty created by U.S. tariffs is damaging global supply chains and reducing the attractiveness of the U.S. market for global capital [6]. Group 5: Cooperation and Trade Diversification - Countries are focusing on deepening cooperation to enhance economic resilience, with initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) being pursued in response to high tariffs [7]. - The IMF emphasizes the importance of practical cooperation among economies to reduce trade and investment barriers [7].