九方金融研究所：反内卷的进程、难题与破局

Core Insights - The anti-involution policy in China is reshaping market dynamics and industrial ecology, transitioning from industry initiatives to systematic governance as of 2025 [1][2] - The policy is a response to economic pressures, including price declines affecting various sectors such as solar energy, steel, and electric vehicles [1][3] - The article emphasizes the need for investors to focus on policy enforcement, industry concentration changes, and demand-side stimulus policies to seize structural opportunities during the industrial restructuring phase [1] Anti-Involution Progress - The anti-involution policy has evolved from a concept introduced in July 2024 to a comprehensive framework included in the government work report, highlighting a shift towards legal governance of low-price competition [2] - The policy's execution has intensified, moving from industry self-regulation to mandatory compliance measures [2] Industry-Specific Challenges - The solar industry, as a pilot sector, has seen a decline in industry concentration due to price wars, despite initial commitments to production control by leading firms [3] - The steel industry faces challenges from local protectionism, hindering capacity exit and market unification [3] - The automotive sector is experiencing intense price competition, with leading companies exploring non-price competition strategies while smaller firms struggle financially [3] Current Challenges of Anti-Involution - The policy's effectiveness is hampered by insufficient enforcement and over-reliance on industry self-regulation, leading to continued low-price competition [4][7] - Demand-side weaknesses are evident, with insufficient market capacity to absorb excess production following capacity exits [5][7] - Significant industry differences complicate the implementation of a unified policy, as each sector has unique causes and pain points related to involution [6][7] Historical Context and Lessons from Supply-Side Reform - The successful supply-side reform from 2015-2016 relied on strong administrative measures and demand-side stimulation, achieving significant capacity reduction and price recovery [8][9] - The current anti-involution policy faces more complex challenges, including a lack of effective demand stimulation and significant industry-specific differences [21] Proposed Solutions for Breaking the Involution Cycle - The article suggests two innovative paths: restructuring demand through service sector expansion and optimizing export structures, alongside enforcing policies to control capacity and price [13][19] - Demand-side reforms should focus on expanding service sector demand and providing targeted subsidies to stimulate consumption in key industries [14][18] - A combination of policy enforcement and industry self-regulation is necessary to shift competition from price wars to technology and service battles [19]