人身险产品切换期来临：停售节奏分化 炒停售效应递减

Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry is entering a product transition period due to the scheduled reduction of the guaranteed interest rate for life insurance products at the end of August, with expectations for market performance being lower than previous years [1][3][6]. Group 1: Product Transition and Market Expectations - The life insurance sector is officially in a product transition phase, with companies facing greater challenges compared to previous years due to a slowdown in market demand [1][6]. - Insurers have varied strategies regarding the discontinuation of old products, with some companies opting for rapid transitions while others plan to sell old products until the last moment [2][4]. - The upcoming changes in guaranteed interest rates will lead to the withdrawal of products that do not meet the new limits, affecting both savings-type and protection-type insurance products [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Regulatory Changes - The guaranteed interest rate for ordinary life insurance products will decrease from 2.5% to 2.0%, and for participating insurance products, it will drop from 2.0% to 1.75% [3]. - The adjustment in interest rates is expected to lower the future cash value of savings-type products while potentially increasing premiums for critical illness insurance, depending on various factors [3][4]. Group 3: Sales Performance and Market Dynamics - Previous product transition periods saw significant premium growth, with some companies achieving a twofold increase in premiums during the 2023 transition [5][6]. - However, the effectiveness of the "炒停售" (speculative discontinuation) strategy is diminishing, with industry insiders predicting a decline in premium scale compared to previous years [6][7]. - Despite the anticipated challenges, the transition period may still represent a peak in business activity for the year, particularly in comparison to the periods leading up to the transition [6][7]. Group 4: Recent Market Trends - The life insurance premium growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.4%, with a notable increase in June, where the growth rate reached 21% [7]. - The increase in premiums is attributed to both the explosive growth in bank insurance channels and the anticipation of the interest rate reduction, which has stimulated customer demand for insurance savings [7].