港股概念追踪 | 光伏“反内卷”加码!产业链景气度向上将获得更强持续性(附概念股)

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting held by multiple government departments emphasizes the need for stronger regulation in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, aiming to eliminate low-price competition and manage project investments effectively [1][2]. Industry Overview - The PV industry is experiencing a significant price increase since July 2025, with polysilicon prices rising by 22.22% and 27.54% for dense and granular silicon respectively compared to early June [2]. - Prices for silicon wafers and battery cells have also seen substantial increases, with 183N wafers rising to 1.20 RMB per piece (up 26.32%) and battery cell prices exceeding 15% compared to June [2][3]. Supply-Side Dynamics - The industry is focusing on two main strategies: addressing below-cost sales and consolidating production capacity. Initial success has been noted in curbing low-price competition, leading to increased prices for polysilicon and wafers [3][5]. - The current polysilicon production capacity exceeds 3 million tons, with 75% of this capacity being newly established since 2022. The focus will be on phasing out high-cost, outdated production capacity [3][6]. Demand-Side Considerations - Demand for PV products is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2025, but uncertainties loom for 2026, with global demand growth anticipated to decline. This necessitates strict control over supply to manage inventory levels effectively [4][6]. - Recent data indicates a rise in bidding volumes for N-type products, with prices reaching 0.7 RMB/W or higher, although overall bidding volumes have decreased significantly year-on-year [4]. Company Insights - Kaisun New Energy (01108): The company is engaged in the R&D, production, and sales of new energy materials, with a recent investment of approximately 1.399 billion RMB for a new photovoltaic component project [6]. - GCL-Poly Energy (03800): The company reported a 24.7% increase in polysilicon sales in 2024, with a notable rise in granular silicon production and a significant reduction in cash costs, showcasing strong competitive advantages [6]. - Xinyi Solar (00968): The company has maintained its photovoltaic glass production capacity while seeking to diversify its overseas production to meet market demands, with a projected 10.3% decrease in domestic production for 2025 [7].