报喜鸟(002154)：1H25费用投入带来短期业绩承压

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue declining by 3.58% year-on-year and net profit down by 42.66% due to weak retail demand and increased fixed costs leading to negative operating leverage [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue was 2.391 billion yuan, with a net profit of 197 million yuan. In 2Q25, revenue was 1.087 billion yuan, and net profit was 27 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.47% and 71.37%, respectively [1]. - By brand, revenue for 1H25 showed a mixed performance: Baoshiniao down 9.60%, Haggis up 8.37%, Baoniao down 22.53%, Lefeiye up 20.48%, and other brands down 9.42% [1]. - The company’s overall gross margin remained stable year-on-year, but online and group purchase models faced pressure [2]. Expense and Profitability Analysis - In 2Q25, the sales expense ratio increased by 3.8 percentage points to 49.5% due to rising rental and promotional costs associated with store expansion [2]. - The net profit margin for 2Q25 decreased by 5.9 percentage points to 2.5% [2]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of 1H25, inventory increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 1.138 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days rising by 23 days to 268 days [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 32% year-on-year to 95 million yuan, while cash reserves stood at approximately 1.43 billion yuan [2]. Development Trends - The company plans to open 10% to 20% new stores while optimizing underperforming locations, with expectations for brand influence to improve through increased investment [3]. - The outdoor brands Lefeiye and Woolrich are anticipated to have good growth potential [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to uncertainties in the retail environment, the company has lowered its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 31% and 27%, respectively, to 368 million yuan and 438 million yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15x for 2025 and 13x for 2026, with a target price reduction of 17% to 4.44 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 15.3% from the current price [4].