钢材：钢价跌破支撑 10月合约3380-3400区间做空尝试

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing price declines, with specific products showing varying levels of demand and inventory changes, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [1][5]. Supply - In the first seven months, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a significant increase in scrap steel consumption [2]. - The total production of the five major steel products rose by 24,000 tons to 8.716 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 7,000 tons to 2.205 million tons and hot-rolled coil production increasing by 7,000 tons to 3.156 million tons [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3%. Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand [3]. - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 8,000 tons to 3.15 million tons [3]. Inventory - There was a significant increase in inventory this week, primarily driven by traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products rising by 406,000 tons to 14.16 million tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 305,000 tons to 5.872 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory rose by 8,400 tons to 3.575 million tons [4]. Price Trends - Hot-rolled coil prices have broken support levels, and black metal prices are weakening again. The data for rebar shows a noticeable decline in August demand, leading to rising inventory levels [5]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has widened to around 290, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5].