年内财政收入累计增速首次转正，“反内卷”行动初现成效

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth this year [1] - General public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Analysts attribute the positive revenue growth in July to the recent "anti-involution" actions that have improved corporate profitability, strengthened individual income tax management, and a recovering capital market [1] Revenue Analysis - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 20,273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the growth rate expanding nearly 3 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Tax revenue amounted to 18,018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, accelerating by 4 percentage points compared to June [3] - Non-tax revenue was 2,255 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.9%, with the decline rate widening by 9.2 percentage points from the previous month [3] Tax Revenue Breakdown - The increase in tax revenue in July is linked to price improvements, enhanced individual income tax management, and a rising stock market [5] - Major tax categories showed varied growth: corporate income tax revenue increased by 6.4%, individual income tax revenue surged by 13.9%, while value-added tax growth slowed to 4.3% [5][6] - The securities transaction stamp duty revenue saw a significant increase from 67.1% in June to 125.4% in July, reflecting a recovering stock market [6] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure in July was 19,466 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from June [6] - Expenditure in the social welfare sector showed robust growth, with education, culture, sports, and health spending increasing by 4.6%, 7.0%, 13.1%, and 14.2% respectively [7] - Infrastructure spending continued to weaken, with a combined decline of 3.8% in four major infrastructure categories, indicating a shift towards prioritizing social welfare over infrastructure [7] Broader Economic Context - From January to July, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) grew by 3.2%, a slowdown of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [8] - The government fund budget revenue in July was 3,682 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue declining by 7.2% [8] - Analysts suggest that the recent trends in real estate sales and investment continue to decline, impacting land-related tax revenues [8] Future Outlook - The recovery in broad fiscal revenue in July was primarily supported by high growth in stamp duty and stable land revenue, but sustainability remains uncertain [9] - There is a possibility of increased government bond issuance in the fourth quarter if budget revenue weakens and land revenue declines simultaneously [9] - The fiscal policy may need to adapt in the latter half of the year, potentially through special bond issuance and adjusting deficits to stabilize growth expectations [9]