大跌！日本突发，日股跳水！

Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming increasingly evident, with significant declines in both exports and imports reported for July [1][3][5]. Trade Data Summary - In July, Japan's exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in over four years and exceeding economists' expectations of a 2.1% drop [3]. - Imports decreased by 7.5%, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decline, resulting in a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately $795.5 million) instead of a forecasted surplus [3]. - Key export declines included automobiles (down 11.4%), steel (down 21%), and auto parts (down 12.1%) [3]. - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1%, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [3][5]. - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. fell by 23.9% to 585.1 billion yen, continuing a three-month decline [3]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the trade data release, the Japanese stock market saw a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5% [4]. - Analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index, which has risen over 9% this year, may retreat to around 42,000 points by the end of December [4]. Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the U.S. for three consecutive months, with the rate of decline increasing [5]. - The automotive sector, a core industry for Japan, has been significantly affected, with a reported 26.7% year-on-year decrease in automobile exports to the U.S. in June [5]. - The Japanese Cabinet Office reported a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP for Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0%, but cautioned about the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs on future economic performance [5]. Economic Forecast - A survey of ten private economists indicated that six expect Japan's economy to enter negative growth in Q3, with an anticipated 0.1% decline in actual GDP quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized decrease of 0.6% [6]. - A recent trade agreement announced by U.S. President Trump may provide some relief, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S., which is expected to create numerous jobs [6].