新西兰联储降息至3%，鸽派声明释放年内再降50基点信号

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate (OCR) to a three-year low of 3%, signaling further easing due to a stagnant economy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The RBNZ cut the OCR by 25 basis points, aligning with the expectations of 22 out of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg [1] - There is a significant probability of two more 25 basis point cuts, with the cash rate potentially dropping to 2.5% by November [1][2] - The decision to lower rates was supported by a 4:2 vote, with some members advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The RBNZ has updated its inflation forecast, predicting an increase from 2.7% to 3% later this year, before slowing to 2.2% by mid-2026 [4] - Economic growth is expected to slow, with a GDP decline of 0.3% for the three months ending in June, followed by a modest growth of 0.3% in the third quarter [4] - The central bank noted that household and business spending is constrained by global economic uncertainties, job losses, rising prices of essentials, and falling housing prices [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the policy announcement, the New Zealand dollar fell over 0.5 cents against the US dollar, trading at 0.5833 USD [1] - New Zealand's benchmark 10-year and sensitive 2-year government bond yields dropped by over 10 basis points, marking the largest decline since April [1]