Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports is becoming increasingly evident, with significant declines in both exports and imports reported for July 2023 [2][4][6]. Trade Data Summary - Japan's exports in July fell by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in over four years and exceeding economists' expectations of a 2.1% drop [4]. - Imports decreased by 7.5%, which was less than the anticipated 10.4% decline [4]. - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 117.5 billion yen (approximately 795.5 million USD), contrasting with the expected surplus of 196.2 billion yen [4]. - Key export declines included automobiles (down 11.4%), steel (down 21%), and auto parts (down 12.1%) [4]. - Notably, exports to the U.S. decreased by 10.1%, with automotive exports dropping significantly by 28.4% and auto parts by 17.4% [4][6]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the trade data release, the Japanese stock market experienced a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1.5% [5]. - Analysts predict that the Nikkei 225 index, which has risen over 9% year-to-date, may retreat to around 42,000 points by the end of the year [5]. Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has led to a continuous decline in Japanese exports to the U.S. for three consecutive months, with the decline in automotive exports particularly pronounced [6]. - The automotive industry, a core sector of the Japanese economy, is expected to face broader negative impacts due to reduced exports, affecting related industries and regional economies [6]. - Preliminary statistics indicate that Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.0% year-on-year in Q2 2023, but concerns remain regarding the potential negative effects of U.S. tariffs [6]. Economic Forecast - A survey of economists suggests that Japan's economy may enter negative growth in Q3 2023, with an expected GDP decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized drop of 0.6% [7]. - Despite the negative outlook, a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which includes a 15% tariff rate and a commitment for Japan to invest 550 billion USD in the U.S., was announced by President Trump [7].
大跌!日本突发 日股跳水!贸易数据大幅下跌 关税影响逐渐显现
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-08-20 03:56