新西兰联储主席释放审慎宽松信号：降息支持经济 未来路径取决于数据

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00%, aligning with market expectations, amidst discussions on various policy options [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision to lower the OCR was made with a 4-2 vote, indicating a rare internal division among committee members regarding future economic risks [3]. - The RBNZ's Chairman, Christian Hawkesby, emphasized that the pace of future rate cuts will depend entirely on incoming economic data [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - New Zealand's economy is projected to stagnate until the second quarter of 2025, with economic activity significantly weaker than expected [2]. - Despite a short-term inflation forecast of 3.0%, core inflation pressures are easing, suggesting a shift towards a more neutral or accommodative monetary policy stance [2]. Group 3: Housing Market and Fiscal Policy - Hawkesby noted that housing prices have not risen as anticipated, indicating that the real estate market is still in a correction phase and not providing robust support to the overall economy [4]. - The government’s fiscal outlook shows a decline in spending, which may help mitigate inflationary pressures and provide more room for monetary policy adjustments [4]. Group 4: Future Guidance - The RBNZ is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, particularly in consumption, investment, and employment, to determine the direction of future monetary policy actions [5]. - Hawkesby has applied to continue as the RBNZ Chairman, aiming to enhance the diversity and decision-making capacity of the monetary policy committee [5].