“反内卷”氛围有所消退 焦炭期货偏弱运行

Core Viewpoint - The coke futures market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to 1669.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.82% [1] Industry Analysis - On August 18, the China Coking Industry Association held a market analysis meeting, where participants discussed the current coke market situation, macroeconomic environment, and industry dynamics. They reached a consensus that the production restriction policies in Tangshan steel mills are clear, and the overall coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong are more extensive than those in steel mills [2] - In Shandong, prices for various types of coke are set to increase, with wet quenching coke rising by 50 yuan/ton, dry quenching coke by 55 yuan/ton, and top-loading coke by 75 yuan/ton, effective from August 19 [2] Production and Inventory - The current pig iron production stands at 2.4066 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.34 million tons, indicating high levels of pig iron production and a lack of pressure on coal mine inventories, which are shifting towards downstream [3] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the coke price is expected to fluctuate due to upcoming significant events and renewed production restriction expectations in East China. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved profitability for coking enterprises, with daily production slightly increasing. Overall, coke inventory continues to decline, and traders show a good purchasing willingness [4] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while the seventh round of price increases for spot coke has begun, there may be future negotiations with steel mills. The profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and the supply-demand situation for coke remains relatively balanced, with stable production and inventory levels [4]