美预算机构预警：未来十年财政赤字将激增近万亿美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future ten-year federal budget deficit in the U.S. is projected to be nearly $1 trillion higher than the previous estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies [1] - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) forecasts a cumulative deficit of $22.7 trillion from fiscal years 2026 to 2035, compared to CBO's earlier prediction of $21.8 trillion [1] - The CRFB estimates that the deficit for fiscal year 2025 will be $1.7 trillion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP, slightly lower than the previous year's deficit of $1.83 trillion [1] Group 2 - The CRFB's new estimates include the budget impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and current tariff policies, but do not account for the dynamic effects of these policy changes on economic growth, which has faced criticism from the Trump administration [2] - The CRFB anticipates that tax cuts and spending measures will increase the deficit by $4.6 trillion by 2035, while the new tariff policies are expected to generate $3.4 trillion in additional import tariff revenue over the next decade [2] - The CRFB predicts that net interest payments on the national debt will total $14 trillion over the next ten years, rising from nearly $1 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion by 2035 [2] Group 3 - The CRFB's alternative scenario suggests a significantly worsened budget outlook, with deficits projected to exceed CBO's baseline by nearly $7 trillion if certain tariff policies are overturned [3] - This alternative scenario assumes that temporary tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will be extended, leading to an additional $1.7 trillion in deficits over the decade [3] - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 118% under CBO's baseline to 120% under CRFB's baseline, and could reach 134% in the alternative scenario [3]