国际观察｜高关税难解美国高债务困局

Core Viewpoint - The total federal debt of the United States has surpassed $37 trillion, raising alarms about the uncontrolled expansion of U.S. debt and the associated risks [1][2]. Debt Expansion - U.S. federal debt exceeded $10 trillion in 2008 and $20 trillion in 2017, with rapid growth since 2020, reaching $34 trillion, $35 trillion, and $36 trillion in January, July, and November of 2024, respectively, indicating an increase of approximately $1 trillion every five months [2]. - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office had predicted that federal debt would exceed $37 trillion by the fiscal year 2030, but this threshold was reached five years earlier than expected, highlighting the alarming pace of debt expansion [2]. - The annual deficit is close to $2 trillion and continues to grow, with the government expected to spend $1 trillion on interest payments this year, surpassing defense and Medicare expenditures [2]. Economic Impact - The increase in debt is detrimental to the U.S. economy and future growth prospects, raising living costs for ordinary citizens and reducing private sector investment [2]. - The U.S. is projected to hit its debt ceiling again in two years if the current debt expansion rate continues [2]. Tax and Tariff Measures - The U.S. government is attempting to address the budget deficit through increased tariffs, claiming that this will benefit federal finances and slow debt expansion. However, tariff revenue is insufficient to cover the growing deficit, which has surged by 19% compared to the previous year [4][5]. - The U.S. Treasury reported that customs net revenue reached $27.7 billion in July, an increase of nearly $21 billion year-on-year, but this is dwarfed by the $47 billion increase in the federal budget deficit [4]. - Estimates suggest that tariffs could generate over $2 trillion in revenue from 2026 to 2035, but other policies, particularly large tax cuts and spending measures, will exacerbate the debt issue [4]. Political Polarization - The ongoing political polarization in the U.S. complicates the debt situation, as both major parties are more focused on partisan interests than on genuine solutions to control debt expansion [6][7]. - Proposals from both parties often serve as tools for political maneuvering rather than effective fiscal strategies, leading to a lack of motivation to address the debt crisis [7]. - Prominent figures, such as Ray Dalio, have warned about the debt situation, advocating for spending cuts, tax increases, and lower interest rates to reduce the annual deficit as a percentage of GDP [7]. Future Outlook - The establishment of the "American Party" by billionaire Elon Musk highlights concerns over government spending, emphasizing that every dollar wasted is a debt incurred for future generations [8]. - The overarching sentiment is that no country can sustain such a pace of borrowing indefinitely, raising questions about the severity of the eventual consequences [8].