地缘溢价减退、基本面羸弱 油价距离底部还有多远？

Core Viewpoint - The recent high temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have not led to an increase in crude oil prices, which have been on a downward trend since the end of July, with WTI crude oil dropping below $62 per barrel [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The geopolitical premium has diminished, leading to a return to fundamental factors driving oil prices. The gradual exit of OPEC+ from voluntary production cuts has weakened the oil market's fundamentals, indicating a prolonged search for a price bottom [3][4]. - Following the cessation of the "12-day war" between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical support for oil prices has weakened. The recent meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin did not resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict but is expected to lower geopolitical risks in the oil market, shifting focus back to fundamentals [4][5]. - OPEC+ has been rapidly advancing its production recovery plan, with an agreement to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking a significant shift from previous voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [5][7]. Economic Outlook and Trade Impact - The World Trade Organization has adjusted its global goods trade growth forecast for this year to 0.9%, but has lowered the 2026 growth expectation from 2.5% to 1.8%, highlighting the negative impact of tariff adjustments on global trade [5][6]. - The World Bank has also revised its 2025 global economic growth forecast down to 2.3%, citing trade barriers and an uncertain global policy environment as factors contributing to a slowdown in economic growth, which negatively affects demand for commodities, including crude oil [6]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - There is increasing concern about supply exceeding demand, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in the coming years. The IEA has adjusted its 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth forecasts upward while lowering demand growth expectations [7][9]. - Speculative positions in the WTI crude oil market have reached a 16-year low, indicating a bearish sentiment among traders [9]. Volatility Risks - The prevailing bearish sentiment in the market may amplify price volatility. Despite the negative outlook, some regions show strong economic activity, leading to a slightly optimistic forecast from OPEC regarding global economic growth [10]. - The market anticipates a weak oil price trend in the fourth quarter, but the traditional summer gasoline consumption peak and the upcoming industrial consumption season may create unpredictable price movements [10].