流动性担忧支撑较强 沪锡期货盘面重心略微上移

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a decline, with tin futures showing a slight upward trend, indicating mixed signals in supply and demand dynamics [1] Supply Side - The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly decreased by 0.41% to 59.23%, although it has significantly rebounded from previous lows [1] - The mining sector remains tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected, and the issuance of mining licenses is expected to lead to a more relaxed supply situation in the future [1] Consumption Side - The photovoltaic industry is facing internal competition policies, leading to a lack of trading activity, while traditional consumption sectors are entering a seasonal downturn, making the overall outlook pessimistic [1] Inventory - Social inventory of tin ingots has slightly decreased, with a total of 10,392 tons reported as of August 15, 2025, an increase of 114 tons from the previous week [1] Market Outlook - The fundamental contradictions remain due to the slow recovery of raw material tin mines and recurring concerns over overseas liquidity [1] - The LME's low inventory reduction trend has not changed, and the recent strengthening of the LME's monthly structure indicates high concentration of warehouse receipts, supporting a slight upward shift in domestic and foreign tin prices [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that Shanghai tin will follow LME trends with a strong oscillation, with continued attention on the structure of LME tin and the concentration of warehouse receipts [1]