CMBC(SH:600016) Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-08-20 08:41Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, indicating a stable monetary policy environment for the past three months [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Experts suggest that the current period is one of policy observation, with no strong necessity for further policy adjustments in the short term [1]. - The chief economist from China Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, noted that the stability in policy rates has kept the pricing basis for LPR unchanged since the interest rate cut in May [3]. - Wen Bin emphasized that while deposit rate cuts have positively impacted interest margins, the competitive pressure on loan rates continues, leading to persistent pressure on bank interest margins [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic data for July showed a downward trend, and external demand is expected to slow down, increasing economic pressure in the third quarter [4]. - The PBOC's recent monetary policy report indicates a focus on implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, with a low probability of further easing in the short term [3][4]. - The Oriental Jincheng macro research team predicts that there is still room for LPR cuts, especially as measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market are implemented [4][5]. Group 3: Future Projections - Predictions suggest that the PBOC may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which could lead to a significant decrease in loan rates for businesses and residents [5]. - The potential for a targeted reduction in the 5-year LPR is seen as a crucial step to alleviate high mortgage rates and stimulate housing demand, thereby reversing negative market expectations [5].