库存持续积累 甲醇短期观望为主

Industry Overview - As of August 14, domestic methanol overall operating load was 72.63%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points month-on-month, but an increase of 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefins facilities was 81.41%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - By August 20, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period, with East China and South China regions seeing inventory increases of 19,200 tons and 35,000 tons respectively [1] Market Sentiment - According to Wenkang Futures, coal prices are rising from the bottom, leading to higher methanol costs, but coal-to-methanol profits remain at a high level year-on-year. Domestic operating rates are gradually bottoming out and expected to rise marginally, while overseas facilities are returning to high operating levels, indicating increased imports ahead and significant supply pressure overall [2] - Demand remains weak, particularly in traditional sectors with low profits, and attention is on the actual demand situation during the upcoming peak season [2] - Olefin profits have improved, but port operations are low and demand performance is weak. Current methanol market conditions are weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season, suggesting a high risk of further declines after recent price drops, with a recommendation to maintain a wait-and-see approach [2] Port Inventory Dynamics - Last week, methanol port inventory continued to accumulate, with East China's main storage areas seeing increased deliveries supported by limited transshipment and shipping, but stable external supply led to ongoing inventory build-up, indicating a bearish outlook [3]