Walmart Earnings: 53% Win Rate, 3.6% Median Gain. But Will The Pattern Hold?

Group 1 - Walmart is expected to announce its fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 21, 2025, with analysts estimating earnings at 74 cents per share and revenue at $174.25 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year rise in adjusted earnings and a 3% growth in sales compared to last year's figures [2][4] - The company has a current market capitalization of $800 billion, with revenue reaching $685 billion over the past twelve months, generating an operational profit of $30 billion and a net income of $19 billion [4] - Approximately one-third of Walmart's U.S. merchandise is imported, with significant cost pressures from tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly in toys and electronics, which may influence future outlook [3] Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that Walmart's stock has improved 53% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 3.6% and a maximum observed growth of 7% [2][7] - Over the last five years, there have been 19 earnings data points noted, with positive one-day returns occurring about 53% of the time, increasing to 64% when examining the last three years [7] - A strategy analyzing the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings can provide a competitive advantage for traders, particularly if the 1D post-earnings return is positive [8]