营收狂飙625%！但Nebius的高增长已定价？

Core Insights - Nebius reported a significant year-over-year sales increase of 625% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 106% in Q2 2025, with core AI infrastructure business EBITDA turning profitable ahead of management expectations [3][4] - The company raised its annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance to $900 million - $1.1 billion, up from a previous range of $750 million - $1 billion, reflecting an 8.57% increase in midpoint guidance [5][6] - Nebius plans to achieve 220 MW of connected power by the end of FY 2025 and 1 GW by the end of FY 2026, with a capital expenditure of $2 billion for 2025 [7] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA loss for the group improved to $21 million, a year-over-year improvement of $31 million [4] - The company’s revenue guidance for core business remains unchanged at $400 million - $600 million, while the overall group revenue guidance is set at $450 million - $630 million [6] - Analysts have raised revenue growth estimates for FY 2025 and FY 2026 to 382.9% and 158.23%, respectively [6] Market Position and Valuation - Nebius was recently included in the Wedbush IVES AI 30 Index, which may add further premium to its already high valuation [8] - The projected price-to-sales ratio for FY 2026 is 11.6x, with potential for it to reach 15x by the end of 2026, suggesting a market cap of approximately $22.05 billion in the next 12-18 months [8] - Despite positive performance, the stock is considered crowded, and further accumulation may not be advisable at this time [9]